Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season/September
September Is here, but nothing except the crossovers are active. Ryan1000 17:59, September 1, 2012 (UTC) :Beware the First Storm of September! -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 04:52, September 2, 2012 (UTC) :::Yes, yes indeed. But not yet. =) Ryan1000 05:20, September 2, 2012 (UTC) :::::maybe this year not new AOI at 20% may beocme Michael if conditions are ideal.Allanjeffs 06:01, September 2, 2012 (UTC) :::I'm not feeling that one. It's already been lowered to 10% and shear conditions are worse for it than for Leslie. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 18:53, September 2, 2012 (UTC) 13L.MICHAEL 99L.INVEST Well, it's been invested. Models do show a weak TS coming out of this. Maybe the "first storm of September" rule won't apply for this year. Ryan1000 23:50, September 2, 2012 (UTC) :Piece of sh*t storms that come out of nowhere do have a way of skewing the statistics lol. In reality, you could probably make a similar argument for the last storm of August, but it's almost always one of the two. I still don't think this storm will do much. I was surprised they upped it to 30%. It is impossibly tiny. Reminds me of Marco or 2001's Lorenzo, which was in about the same spot. But I've been wrong before. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 10:06, September 3, 2012 (UTC) :::I'd be stunned if this does anything except become a minor TS. Might not develop at all, but it certainly has a chance. Ryan1000 16:02, September 3, 2012 (UTC) :::60% might become a depression or storm tonight or tomorrow.Allanjeffs 20:36, September 3, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression Thirteen the 13 depression of the year has form.AL, 13, 2012090318, , BEST, 0, 255N, 421W, 30, 1012, LO,Allanjeffs 20:50, September 3, 2012 (UTC) :Lol. That was fast.--Isaac829E-Mail 20:55, September 3, 2012 (UTC) :::Dammit I was really hoping Michael was gonna be something fun to watch. Please don't strengthen. I'm so tired of these piece of crap storms that just steal a name off the list. This could be another Jose. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 21:36, September 3, 2012 (UTC) :::Me too Michael sounds like a great storm to watch,but remember Skyfury if they have the winds and the closed circulation it should be name no matter if with like it or not.Allanjeffs 21:57, September 3, 2012 (UTC) :::::Expected to become Michael, even though it'll probrably be another fail. Ryan1000 01:04, September 4, 2012 (UTC) :::::Technically Leslie is the first of September because she has been alive since the end of August and she might become a major so that rule can apply and td 13 might not become :::::Michael from what I seeing.Allanjeffs 03:14, September 4, 2012 (UTC) :::::And boy I was wrong Michael is born ,13 tropical storm of the season has form.AL, 13, 2012090412, , BEST, 0, 268N, 435W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1016, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, M, Allanjeffs 12:43, September 4, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Michael Confirmed by NHC. Sorry, Eric. =( And Allan, Eric's "beware the first storm of September" adage applies to the first tropical storm to'' form in the month, not first to ''exist in the month. However, if a tropical depression forms at the end of August and becomes a TS in September, like 2007's Felix, that counts. Ryan1000 16:02, September 4, 2012 (UTC) Michael will do nothing other than exist. I don't see any landmasses being affected, and it probably will be another Joyce. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 17:29, September 4, 2012 (UTC) You should never understimate a storm Andrew the same thing was say of Gordon and Kirk and they bomb to hurricanes not saying that is going to happen but it could.Allanjeffs 20:28, September 4, 2012 (UTC) :50 mph :O It might become another Chris.Isaac829E-Mail 21:35, September 4, 2012 (UTC) :::Even so, althugh Michael may become a hurricane i'm not placing my money on it. There's an upper-level low over Leslie right now producing some shear over her, and if that low interacts with Michael, he's gone. Because Michael is so small, even a slight increase in shear could kill him instantly. Ryan1000 22:20, September 4, 2012 (UTC) :::::I'm ticked at Michael for screwing up my adage. It verified last year with Lee (although, if you want to nitpick, NHC's silly post-analysis storm squeaked in on the 1st). I was making fun of it this morning, calling it a piece of crap, and I think I made it mad because now it's up to 45 knots and forcast to go to 60 lol. Like I said, the adage isn't perfect. It only truly verifies roughly half the time. It's almost always, however, either the last storm of August or the first storm of September that does something bad. Sometimes destructive storms have only been narrowly usurped by a weaker storm (for example, TS Henri snuck in just ahead of Isabel in 2003). It's just a catchy, statistical rule of thumb. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 23:44, September 4, 2012 (UTC) :::::I say Michael will become a cat 1 and the six or seventh hurricane depending whether Leslie becomes 1 first.Allanjeffs 03:53, September 5, 2012 (UTC) :::::::I think it has a chance at hurricane strength too, but we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 08:30, September 5, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::I think you guys are underestimating the potential for Michael to drive Leslie into Nova Scotia and Atlantic Canada, some models are even predicting Leslie could be a major hurricane when it slams into Canada. Which would be unprecedented and even stronger than Juan. Any major hurricane hitting Atlantic Canada will be retired... See this: [1] --Whiplash (talk) 16:34, September 5, 2012 (UTC) Leapt to 65 mph/998 mbar on the 1:30 pm special advisory, forecast peak intensity raised to 85 mph. --HurricaneMaker99 19:06, September 5, 2012 (UTC) Told you Andrew to never understimate the potential of Michael up to 70mph he might very well be another Kirk.Allanjeffs 20:43, September 5, 2012 (UTC) Hurricane Michael Per ATCF. I agree Allanjeffs. Never underestimate.--Isaac829E-Mail 01:32, September 6, 2012 (UTC) Oh, man! Busted another personal forecast! I'm surprised Michael even made it this far! AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:38, September 6, 2012 (UTC) he can even be the 1 major imo.Allanjeffs 03:07, September 6, 2012 (UTC) :Whoa! Michael's now a Cat 2! This storm is exploding! How in the world is this happening? Conditions aren't even that favorable. I didn't think this storm was going to be anything and now it may be the first major hurricane of the season. Wow. I think he's doing this just to spite me lol! -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 05:20, September 6, 2012 (UTC) :Actually is not in that unfavorable enviroment It may become the first Major I had the gut that this was not going to be a fail.Allanjeffs 05:32, September 6, 2012 (UTC) :From NHC: ...MICHAEL BECOMES THE FIRST CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OF THE YEAR... :So, Michael's now a major. 115 mph winds. BTW, I'm also Anonymous 2.0. 112.201.197.76 09:03, September 6, 2012 (UTC) Major Hurricane Michael 13-7-1! 965 mb, OMG, this is incredible, considering the NHC initially only made him a weak tropical storm at first (I think he's mad at me for calling him a fishsipnner). --AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 09:11, September 6, 2012 (UTC) :From NHC: ...MICHAEL BECOMES THE FIRST CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OF THE YEAR... :So, it's official. Is it expected to affect the Maritimes/Bermuda? 112.201.197.76 09:13, September 6, 2012 (UTC) :The NHC isn't predicting that, but a couple computer models predict an Azores hit. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 09:22, September 6, 2012 (UTC) :And also, Michael is the third earliest 7th hurricane on record (From NHC Discussion 13): WITH MICHAEL BECOMING THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON EARLIER TODAY...IT MARKS THE THIRD EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE SEVENTH HURRICANE IN A YEAR...ONLY BEHIND 1886 AND 1893. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 10:16, September 6, 2012 (UTC) Took a long time to get the first major of the year. And from an unexpected storm, very nicely played Michael! Yqt1001 (talk) 12:14, September 6, 2012 (UTC) :I was making fun of it at the beginning, but I think Michael had the last laugh. Turned out to be a really awesome storm. Beautiful too, check this out: [2]. Awesome. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 05:16, September 7, 2012 (UTC) ::Knew that Michael would be pretty amazing never judge a ts no matter how bad it looks it can transform into a beautiful hurricane.Allanjeffs 05:30, September 7, 2012 (UTC) Hurricane Michael (2nd time) When I went to bed a couple nights ago, the NHC had yet to confirm that Michael was a hurricane; imagine the look on my face when I woke up to find that he was the first major of the season! It was great while it lasted, but now Michael is on a gradual decline. 105 mph/970 mbar as of the 11 am advisory. --HurricaneMaker99 18:45, September 7, 2012 (UTC) Pressure at 971 mb. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 17:36, September 8, 2012 (UTC) I left for a few days, and when I return, I see this. Michael is our first major. It's also not weakening as fast as I thought it would. I wasn't completely expecting Michael to become a major, but I never ruled it out. Just like Ophelia of last year shoved my words down my throat when I called her a disapointment, Michael shoved your words down yours, Eric. You shouldn't underestimate storms like him. They pull surprises in this area of the Atlantic lol, like Chris and Gordon earlier this year. Ryan1000 16:03, September 9, 2012 (UTC) And Kirk too Ryan anyways we might see Nadine of 91L in the next few days and Kristy of 90E.Michael for me has been the most awesome storm of the year. and Ryan or Eric does this classify beware of the first storm of September or because it didn`t make landfall can`t because it was a major?Allanjeffs 16:56, September 9, 2012 (UTC) Well, normally Allan, the adage applies to notable first storms of September. Ike of 2008 was one example, which also became a major but also became the third-costliest hurricane in U.S. history. Michael became a major Allan, but it didn't affect land. I respect him because he became an unexpected major, but I would value a hurricane which caused a tremendous amount of impacts on land as far more notable than some cool major that unexpectedly pulled off what it did. Considering the Bermuda High has now been placed in a similar position to where it was in the heart of the 2010 season, it looks like most of the storms from here on out, including 91L, will likely recurve out to sea. Unfortunately, we already had a severe hurricane this year. This year kind of resembles last year in the fact we had only one notable storm and (almost) everything else remained a fish (though Irene>>Isaac). We will likely end up with a similar number of storms that we had last year, and like 94L of last year was upgraded to a minor TS in post-season, 98L from late July of this year could do the same. Ryan1000 17:36, September 9, 2012 (UTC) :80 mph now.Isaac829E-Mail 11:53, September 10, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Michael (2nd time) Falling down... Ryan1000 14:40, September 11, 2012 (UTC) :Now at 45 mph and expected to die a tropical death. --HurricaneMaker99 19:22, September 11, 2012 (UTC) Post-tropical cyclone Michael Gone. :( --Isaac829E-Mail 23:54, September 11, 2012 (UTC) Still producing gale-force winds. 24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL MICHAEL ABSORBED BY LOW E OF AREA. (or Leslie) —''12R.KIEWII'' 12:30, September 12, 2012 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Should be interesting, 10% atm.--Isaac829E-Mail 23:52, September 4, 2012 (UTC) Developent isn't expected now (because it is clearly over land!), but might become a cyclone in the Gulf. I don't know how strong it'll get. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:56, September 5, 2012 (UTC) Models are developing this fairly quickly.Allanjeffs 05:20, September 5, 2012 (UTC) :40%!Isaac829E-Mail 19:37, September 5, 2012 (UTC) :Now up to 50%. Recon investigation soon? AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:40, September 6, 2012 (UTC) ::Probably, Andrew.Isaac829E-Mail 01:41, September 6, 2012 (UTC) ::::Scheduled for tomorrow afternoon if necessary. I'm hearing that this cluster of thunderstorms was left behind by Isaac...he's still making trouble lol. Most of the models take it to Florida as a weak tropical storm. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 05:25, September 6, 2012 (UTC) ::::Would be Nadine if it gets name.Allanjeffs 05:30, September 6, 2012 (UTC) ::::::Dropped to 30%.Isaac829E-Mail 00:32, September 7, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::Down to 20% :( Isaac829E-Mail 21:37, September 7, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::::0% D: Isaac829E-Mail 15:33, September 8, 2012 (UTC) 14L.NADINE Aoi: Southeast of Cape Verde 10% atm.--Isaac829E-Mail 23:59, September 7, 2012 (UTC) 30%Allanjeffs 13:36, September 8, 2012 (UTC) 70% here comes Nadine she better not be boring.Allanjeffs 05:40, September 10, 2012 (UTC) 91L.INVEST Invested.--Isaac829E-Mail 15:40, September 8, 2012 (UTC) :40%.Isaac829E-Mail 19:26, September 8, 2012 (UTC) :::Maybe Nadine will come from this, but I'm not sure if it will affect land. Ryan1000 16:03, September 9, 2012 (UTC) :::::I don't think this will, 50% atm.Isaac829E-Mail 23:43, September 9, 2012 (UTC) :::::At 70% now. Likely to become Fourteen or Nadine. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 10:56, September 10, 2012 (UTC) :::::::90%. Should be Nadine (or 14) anytime now. Most models are expecting this to be our next major hurricane, but they recurve it out to sea, well to the east of Bermuda. Ryan1000 16:16, September 10, 2012 (UTC) :::::::yeah I am pretty sure it will be nadine and our second major of the season.Allanjeffs 17:51, September 10, 2012 (UTC) :::::::SHIPS and HWRF show 91L becoming Major Hurricane Nadine in ~5 days, while IVCN and GFDL make this (Minor) Hurricane Nadine. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:27, September 10, 2012 (UTC) :::::::::Most of the models are in agreement it will head WNW, then turn NW and eventually away from land, while staying well away from land on the way. I see no reason to forecast it to do anything else. It won't be affecting land. They're a little split on the intensity, but I would take this to 135 mph at its peak. Ryan1000 02:14, September 11, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression Fourteen Hello Nadine-to be! Ryan1000 17:11, September 11, 2012 (UTC) You know what this means right? If there is a "Nadine" in September, we will finally have an Oscar! Even possibly Patty and Rafael! This will be the first time ever since the name lists changed in 1979 that a storm in the Atlantic will be named Oscar, and possibly Patty an Rafael. It will also be the first time this list made it to the "O" named storm, and possibly "P" and "R" named storm. Can't wait for what's ahead after future Nadine! STO12 (talk) 00:08, September 12, 2012 (UTC) we have Nadine.AL, 14, 2012091200, , BEST, 0, 175N, 446W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1011, 250, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M, .btw if this list reach oscar and patty it will be the last list to reach those letters , and I think we will reach William this year.Allanjeffs 00:39, September 12, 2012 (UTC) All we need now is NHC confirmation. And guys, don't start getting too hyped. We got a record-tying 17 pre-October storms last year, only to really slow down. This year could easily do the same due to the El Nino. And also, of note, 2000 would have also used Oscar if subtropical storms were named back then (that year concluded with an unnamed subtropical storm). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:48, September 12, 2012 (UTC) I agree that is why I am waiting for Patty the Gfs is predicting three more storms one near NC other in the western Carribean and the near the cape verdes if it verifies we will have Oscar,Patty and Rafael.Allanjeffs 02:30, September 12, 2012 (UTC) Yes, I know, if Subtropical Storms were named, we would have had an Oscar. Since it hadn't been named, this list would still break the record of being the last list to reach these letters and the first time after the new name lists 1979 that we've reached Oscar. I really hope this list at least makes it down to Rafael; if it does then List 1 would be the one that's behind, since the name Rose has never been used. STO12 (talk) 03:04, September 12, 2012 (UTC) List 6 haven`t reach Rene either the last one of this list was Paloma which was retire in 2008.Allanjeffs 04:22, September 12, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Nadine We have Nadine! Oscar and maybe Patty and Rafael....here we come! STO12 (talk) 02:53, September 12, 2012 (UTC) We'd need 8 more storms to get the greeks and be the second-most active year ever. I don't see any reason why we can't either; the tropics just don't want to quit. I don't fully expect El Nino until next year, which is a cursed naming list anyways. I think this year will still be one of the most active years ever, possibly even more active than it's two predecesors, 2010 and 2011. Those two years marked the first time we had 19 named storms in two consecutive years. 2012 could make that three. Ryan1000 11:00, September 12, 2012 (UTC) Actually Ryan the models after this year we will have a la Niña again.Allanjeffs 12:18, September 12, 2012 (UTC) I'm not sure. We'd be going 4 years without El Nino if that happened. No strong El Nino is out now, and even if there is one coming, ATL just doesn't seem to care. Statistically it happens every 4 years or so, but it may happen sooner or later. 1997-2002 was a 5 year gap, while 2006-2009 was only a 3-year gap. I hope we go to El Nino soon so the ATL can rest a little bit, even though it wasn't catastrophic over the past few years(well, bad, but not 2004-05 bad) despite how many storms we saw. Ryan1000 16:20, September 12, 2012 (UTC) Okay, pressure and wind measurements. 55 kt (wrong mph/kt conversion?)/994 mb for Nadine. Expected to become a moderate Category 1 hurricane. (Also, this Nadine is the strongest Nadine, as 2000's Nadine only reached 999 mb (I think)). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:20, September 12, 2012 (UTC) up to 60knts may become a hurricane tomorrow.AL, 14, 2012091300, , BEST, 0, 202N, 495W, 60, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 20, 40, 1010, 300, 15, 0, 0,.if Nadine is upgrade we will have surpass 2011 in terms of hurricanes.Allanjeffs 00:45, September 13, 2012 (UTC) Not a hurricane quite yet, but will be soon. Ryan1000 14:10, September 13, 2012 (UTC) AL, 14, 2012091500, , BEST, 0, 296N, 529W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 0, 1013, 240, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D, She finally made it might strength to a cat 2.Allanjeffs 00:51, September 15, 2012 (UTC) Not sure about a Category 2, but a strong Category 1 hurricane is not out of the question. 97.106.71.84 01:46, September 15, 2012 (UTC) Hurricane Nadine At last! Nadine was procrastinating for quite a while there. I honestly half-expected her to weaken a little bit with the latest advisory. Anyway, she's at 75 mph/985 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 02:46, September 15, 2012 (UTC) Expected to hit 80 mph. Anyway, this is the first "Hurricane Nadine" in Atlantic history (we also saw the first "Hurricane Leslie" and maybe even the first "Hurricane Beryl" in Atlantic records this year too). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 11:26, September 15, 2012 (UTC) It took longer than I expected to become a hurricane, but it is one now. Likely to keep going northeast and die out to sea. Ryan1000 14:42, September 15, 2012 (UTC) Nadine went up to 80 mph/983 mb and then back down to 75 mph/985 mb since the last post. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:44, September 17, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Nadine (2nd time) Powered back down last night but forecast to stick around for quite a while. 11 am advisory said 70 mph, 987 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 19:18, September 17, 2012 (UTC) We haven't paid much attention to Nadine, but she's close to the Azores right now and she's been stalling for a while. She will likely die in 2-3 days. Ryan1000 12:26, September 19, 2012 (UTC) Sigh...What's taking you, Nadine? You're just gonna sit over the North Atlantic for as long as you want? You'll die at some point, but later than I earlier thought. Ryan1000 17:21, September 21, 2012 (UTC) :I just checked the models and it doesn't appear that Nadine will die off quickly at all. In fact GFS still has this storm going for all of next week, just bobbing back and forth between the Azores and Canary Islands. Though I'm not sure how long it will retain tropical characteristics. Supportstorm (talk) 18:32, September 21, 2012 (UTC) ::Latest ATCF says that Nadine has become subtropical. --HurricaneMaker99 19:39, September 21, 2012 (UTC) ::::Seems like it isn't going to die quickly after all.Isaac829E-Mail 20:29, September 21, 2012 (UTC) Subtropical Storm Nadine Official per NHC. 60 mph, 982 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 20:40, September 21, 2012 (UTC) Didn't expect this. Anyway, this event is quite uncommon. Its only happened a few times before (Gilda '73, Klaus '84, Allison, and Lee '11). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 21:11, September 21, 2012 (UTC) This stubborn little storm has been around for two and a half weeks, and based on what I've rescently checked, a few models even take this up to hurricane strength again in 3-4 days. This storm will take a while to die out. Ryan1000 21:51, September 21, 2012 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Nadine I take back what I said.--Isaac829E-Mail 02:40, September 22, 2012 (UTC) Wha...Didn't expect that to happen lol. It might be brought back, but I didn't expect it to die so fast. Ryan1000 04:34, September 22, 2012 (UTC) Has a 40% chance of regeneration now, but not likely to become more than a TS again. I'm surprised as to how many storms we've had thus far. 2012 was initially predicted to be El Nino but we've already had 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes and a major hurricane. Also, since 94L rescently and 98L of late July could be upgraded in post-season, we really might be at 16-8-1 now. We've had 7 storms -- Beryl, Debby, Ernesto, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, and Leslie -- that have hit land thus far this year, but only 3 have done so as hurricanes (Ernesto, Gordon, and Isaac, of which only Isaac was severe), and Michael only briefly became a minimal major hurricane with winds of 115 and a pressure of 964 mbars. If we don't get a stronger storm than him through the rest of the season, it will be the weakest storm of any season since 1995 to be the season's strongest as well. There is still two months and a week until 2012 AHS is over, but although the Atlantic is sleeping now, it will likely reawaken in October with 2-3 more storms, at least. NHC still hasn't finished any TCR's for the Atlantic. Ryan1000 23:13, September 22, 2012 (UTC) Whoa, whoa, whoa. It's up to 90% now everyone. It seems Nadine just doesn't want to go away. She'll probrably be upgraded again later today. Ryan1000 14:07, September 23, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Nadine (3rd time) Yay!--Isaac829E-Mail 14:55, September 23, 2012 (UTC) Again!? Wow, Nadine really wants more attention before going away. Seems Nadine pulled an Ophelia (2011). STO12 (talk) 15:26, September 23, 2012 (UTC) She will probably win the first spot in ace and she is expect to be a hurricane once again.Allanjeffs 15:30, September 23, 2012 (UTC) Nadine is more like a Philippe (2011) to me. Looks like we could see the longest lasting Atlantic system since Bertha in 2008. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 16:28, September 23, 2012 (UTC) :She's back! This is pretty amazing. Nadine has persisted through strong shear and interaction with non-tropical systems. Many of the models, however, were calling for Nadine to regain tropical characteristics and it seems they were right. Interesting that not only is Nadine alive, but it's forecast to regain its prior peak intensity. With Nadine forecast to be a category 1 hurricane at the end of five days, we could be talking about this storm persisting into early next week, which would put its lifespan at right around twenty days. That's will make it the longest lived tropical cyclone in the Atlantic since at least Ivan, but remember Ivan was a remnant low for multiple days as it circled back around to the Gulf for its miraculous reincarnation. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 18:59, September 23, 2012 (UTC) :::I knew it would be alive for longer. It's one persistent little storm. It's been a while since I've seen a storm last this long, especially in this area of the Atlantic lol. It could last almost to the start of October. Keep going Nadine! You can make it! Ryan1000 23:12, September 23, 2012 (UTC) :::::Down to 45 mph :( Isaac829E-Mail 02:46, September 25, 2012 (UTC) :::::::She ain't goin' nowhere. None of the models, even the most reliable ones, the GFS and Euro, take Nadine to hurricane strength or towards land in the next week, but none of them kill it either. This storm could be alive up until at least October 2nd, which would put it alive for 21 days, and if it goes on for two more weeks, we have a storm that could outlive 1994's John in EPac as the longest-lived TC in history. Not to say that will happen, but she's barely moving at all and she's not expected to move much for several more days. These are the good storms to watch. They never affect land and we can watch them for as long as we want to. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is over in the WPac atm, which explains the back-to back super typhoons we saw there rescently. However, when it comes back in the ATL near mid-October, we could see 2-4 more storms until the season is out for good. Ryan1000 17:02, September 25, 2012 (UTC) The models keep trending for more stalls and many loops like she has been doing. GFS an Euro both ended today with Nadine in a spot similar to where it is today. This thing could only be half way in its (tropical) life. It's expected to go post-tropical in a few days and regenerate while heading south. Could even get as far south as 23N before being shunted (slowly) north again. Unless something the models aren't foreseeing happens soon, she could be around for another 10 days.... Yqt1001 (talk) 03:22, September 27, 2012 (UTC) If Nadine keeps going on like she has been for the past two weeks, she might even have a chance at outliving the 1899 Hurricane San Ciriaco as the longest-lived Atlantic storm on record. The longest-lived TC in history was John of 1994, which lived as a tropical cyclone for a full month, but Nadine will have to do some serious surviving if it wants to span as much time as John. It's currently September 27. Nadine will have to live for two more weeks until she can span a month in time (September 11 to October 11). If she makes it to October 12, she's going to be the longest-lived TC in history. Ryan1000 14:39, September 27, 2012 (UTC) Oh, and one more thing - with regards to longevity, Nadine has already been active as a named storm for 15 days. That puts her as the 9th longest-lived tropical storm in the Atlantic since 1950. If she can live for just 3 more days, she'll be the 4th-longest-lived storm since 1950 for named storm days, behind Alberto of 2000, Carrie of 1957 and Ginger of 1971. 1899 storm still has the all-time record at 28 days as an active tropical cyclone (but a remnant low for 3 days more). Nadine will have to work quite a ways to catch up to him. Ryan1000 22:44, September 27, 2012 (UTC) Nadine is almos a hurricane might be one later today.Allanjeffs 09:31, September 28, 2012 (UTC) Hurricane Nadine (2nd time) ...well! 75 mph, 988 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 14:49, September 28, 2012 (UTC) How...is Nadine...pulling this off! I don't get it. It's like Nadine has made the northeastern Atlantic her little "nest" of protection. She's been living here for about a week now and none of the models kill it as she meanders in this area of the Atlantic for at least one more week. Keep going Nadine! Just keep it going! You can make it to a month! 16 days as a tropical cyclone atm. Ryan1000 21:52, September 28, 2012 (UTC) My bet is 24 days before she dies.Allanjeffs 23:04, September 28, 2012 (UTC) Hmm...I don't think it will live that much longer. Two more weeks definitely wouldn't be impossible though, given how long she is postponing her (inevitable) death. If it does, San Ciriaco can suck it. Ryan1000 01:58, September 29, 2012 (UTC) :NHC has Nadine persisting for an at least five more days. Not much is expected to change for the next few days, and I see no reason to believe that Nadine will have any trouble weathering the current 15-20 kts of shear. After 2-3 days, shear should increase a little bit but while Nadine may weaken I do not expect it to dissipate. Most of the guidance has Nadine remaining a tropical cyclone for at least five more days. The Euro keeps it alive for at least six more days. So it's possible Nadine could challenge Inga for #3 on the Atlantic's all time list at just under 25 days. That massive low pressure system that's forecast to move off of Canada in about five days should finally put an end to things though. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 04:34, September 29, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Nadine (4th time) 70 mph/992 mb. For the record, Nadine has outlived Pacific hurricanes Lane and Miriam, and likely Pacific typhoons Jelawat and Ewiniar, as well as Pacific Tropical Storm Norman. If she lives two more advisories, she'll tie Bertha (2008)'s longevity, then will be the longest storm since 2004's Ivan if she lasts to tomorrow. I think Nadine will reach Kyle (2002)'s duration. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 12:27, September 29, 2012 (UTC) No, Nadine would be the longest-lived since Kyle. Ivan only remained a tropical cyclone for a little over two weeks. It spanned from September 2nd to 24th, but there was a huge gap in between that when Ivan dissipated overland, then regenerated in the GOM. Nadine only died for about a day, then revived herself soon after. And even as she's moving north now, her life may not be over in ~5 days. In fact, if the Euro verifies, she'll be reversing direction in the next few days and the trough emerging off Canada will miss her to the north. Then she'll sit around in the central-eastern Atlantic for much longer than earlier thought. I would hope that happens, because then she'll have a shot at outliving even Inga and San Ciriaco. Ryan1000 12:55, September 29, 2012 (UTC) Hurricane Nadine (3rd time) ATCF has Nadine back at 65kts. Looking a lot like Chris now. Yqt1001 (talk) 13:28, September 29, 2012 (UTC) She just won't quit. I don't know how long she'll be out there, but I'd love it if she could make two more weeks. Ryan1000 16:53, September 29, 2012 (UTC) ::Now she's up to 90 mph... stronger than ever! --HurricaneMaker99 14:15, September 30, 2012 (UTC) :She istrying to make a run to cat 2 status.Allanjeffs 15:15, September 30, 2012 (UTC) :She might even have a shot at being our second major. She's still going on...Ryan1000 15:20, September 30, 2012 (UTC) :Nadine has now lasted as a tropical or subtropical for exactly 18 days, triple the normal longevity of a(n Atlantic) tropical cyclone (six days). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 20:55, September 30, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Nadine (5th time) Down again, but now, she's not coming back up. After all this time, it seems we are gonna have to start waving goodbye to Nadine. I'll never forget how long she lasted against the odds. Ryan1000 16:44, October 1, 2012 (UTC) She actually looks goos she might strength a last time if it continues.Allanjeffs 12:01, October 2, 2012 (UTC) btw people now winter storms are going to be name what is your opinion on that people?Allanjeffs 12:13, October 2, 2012 (UTC) It's not a half-bad idea; we didn't leave hurricanes unnamed forever or there would be no way to remember them. Nadine is slowly dying away and won't be much more by this Friday or Saturday. It would have to survive up until the Thursaday after this upcoming Thursday to make it to a month. I don't think she'll make it that long. Ryan1000 15:05, October 2, 2012 (UTC) I actually believe its a good idea it would make winter more fun.Allanjeffs 22:12, October 2, 2012 (UTC) As of this post, Nadine has tied Carrie (1957) and Inez (1966) as the sixth longest lived North Atlantic tropical cyclone in history. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 11:43, October 3, 2012 (UTC) It's been alive for 23 days right now. Only a Hurricane Ginger of 1971 and Hurricane San Ciriaco of 1899 lasted longer than Nadine at this moment. Carrie lasted 22 days and Inez for 20 days. Ginger lasted for about a month, but only 27 days as a Tropical Cyclone. Hurricane San Ciriaco lasted 28 days as a tropical cyclone and 31 overall. Nadine has lived for 23 days, 22 of which it was a tropical cyclone. I expect her to live for 3 more days or so, which would still make her third longest-lived ever. Ryan1000 12:33, October 3, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of Nadine ...BYE BYE NADINE... ...WHAT A LONG STRANGE TRIP ITS BEEN... Isaac829E-Mail 19:33, October 4, 2012 (UTC) Lol. Sadly, after 24 long, exhausting days, Nadine is finally down and out. It's the 4th longest-lived storm on record in the Atlantic basin, behind only Inga of 1969, Ginger of 1971, and of course, Hurricane San Ciriaco of 1899. It also accumulated an impressive ACE, possibly the highest of any Atlantic hurricane that never exceeded category 1 strength. Ryan1000 20:25, October 4, 2012 (UTC) For the record, Nadine's ACE is the highest for any Atlantic tropical cyclone since Hurricane Igor in 2010. Techinically, Nadine is actually the 5th longest lived Atlantic storm (Kyle in 2002 lasted longer if you exclude the time she was extratropical). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 20:56, October 4, 2012 (UTC) bye bye beautiful I have fun tracking you.:) Actually, if you only include the time she was a tropical cyclone, she ties Ginger for 2nd place, per the NHC's last forecast discussion on her. Ryan1000 21:45, October 4, 2012 (UTC) AOI:Over Bahamas Near 0% for now, but it may develop in the long run. Maybe this could be Oscar down the road. Ryan1000 00:42, September 13, 2012 (UTC) Yep I agree if it can stay for the TWO all day tomorrow or is up tomorrow it might have a chance.Allanjeffs 00:47, September 13, 2012 (UTC) Gone from NHC. Ryan1000 14:10, September 13, 2012 (UTC) 92L.INVEST AOI:Near Lesser Antillies 10% atm, but not likely to develop in the next few days due to wind shear. Could become something in the Western Caribbean though. Ryan1000 14:42, September 15, 2012 (UTC) 92L.INVEST 20% and now is 92L I have a feeling it would be something.May be bump to 30 at the next two.Allanjeffs 21:43, September 15, 2012 (UTC) Probrably won't become much of anything until it reaches the western Caribbean though. Certainly has a chance at becoming Oscar. Ryan1000 00:44, September 16, 2012 (UTC) Update:Whoa, I've underestimated this storm. This isn't looking good...NHC (SHIPS) is already predicting this to become a near-major hurricane in the western Caribbean near Jamacia and Hispaniola and it's only a minor invest atm. This storm is already starting to scare me. I guess it could become Oscar much sooner than I thought. Ryan1000 02:53, September 16, 2012 (UTC) Good news! Enviormental conditions are getting unfavorable for 92L. It's now down to 10%.AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:46, September 17, 2012 (UTC) 93L.INVEST 20% near Texas O.o Isaac829E-Mail 18:26, September 16, 2012 (UTC) I wouldn't expect this to do much. If it wants to become Oscar (or Patty), it would have to do it right now. Ryan1000 20:26, September 16, 2012 (UTC) 94L.INVEST AOI.Central Atlantic 10% atm. Oscar, anyone? Ryan1000 12:23, September 19, 2012 (UTC) Maybe. The NHC says possible transition to a storm. Either way, the AOI's at 20%. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 21:20, September 19, 2012 (UTC) I think it would be Oscar.Allanjeffs 21:27, September 19, 2012 (UTC) 94L.INVEST up to 40% might become Oscar tomorrow or Friday.Allanjeffs 23:54, September 19, 2012 (UTC) :I think this will become Oscar tomorrow.Isaac829E-Mail 02:12, September 20, 2012 (UTC) :I say it will peak as a 70mph ts or a hurricane.Allanjeffs 02:24, September 20, 2012 (UTC) It will most likely become Oscar due to the favorable conditions and all the open room for it to strengthen. I don't expect a strong hurricane, it will most likely become a subtropical storm and then move towards Bermuda. STO12 (talk) 13:49, September 20, 2012 (UTC) Was invested earlier, but either way, it's likely to head westward north of Bermuda and possibly could hit Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. May become TS Oscar on the way. Ryan1000 14:19, September 20, 2012 (UTC) If it becomes a little more organized it would probably be upgrade to ts Oscar at 11pm.Allanjeffs 20:35, September 20, 2012 (UTC) I think so. Almost all of the models point this to Newfoundland over the next few days, but Nova Scotia isn't off the hook completely. Bermuda could also recieve some waves from this, but other than some rain and wind, they shouldn't be hit that hard. Ryan1000 17:18, September 21, 2012 (UTC) 94L better come together fast...down to 30%. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 21:13, September 21, 2012 (UTC) Maybe it missed it's chance already...but I'm not giving up on this yet. Ryan1000 21:51, September 21, 2012 (UTC) Almost done...20%. Pull a Jose (2011), get upgraded in post season (it'll 94L in September 2011), or die. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:19, September 22, 2012 (UTC) I think it missed it's chance. There is a chance of a post-season upgrade with this, as is there with 98L of late July this year, but we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 04:34, September 22, 2012 (UTC) AOI:Central Atlantic 10%, but probrably won't develop anyways. Ryan1000 16:42, September 26, 2012 (UTC) Gone from NHC. Ryan1000 22:49, September 27, 2012 (UTC)